The data collection effort about investor attitudes that I have been conducting since 1989 has now resulted in a group of Stock Market Confidence Indexes produced by the Yale School of Management. These data are collected in collaboration with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui of Japan. Some of our earlier results are also noteworthy: Results of Surveys about Stock Market Speculation 12/99. Stock market data used in my book, Irrational Exuberance [Princeton University Press 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd ed., 2005] are available for download, U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio. This data set consists of monthly stock price, dividends, and earnings data and the consumer price index (to allow conversion to real values), all starting January 1871. The price, dividend, and earnings series are from the same sources as described in Chapter 26 of my earlier book (Market Volatility [Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989]), although now I use monthly data, rather than annual data. Monthly dividend and earnings data are computed from the S&P four-quarter totals for the quarter since 1926, with linear interpolation to monthly figures. Dividend and earnings data before 1926 are from Cowles and associates (Common Stock Indexes, 2nd ed. [Bloomington, Ind.: Principia Press, 1939]), interpolated from annual data. Stock price data are monthly averages of daily closing prices through January 2000, the last month available as this book goes to press. The CPI-U (Consumer Price Index-All Urban Consumers) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics begins in 1913; for years before 1913 1 spliced to the CPI Warren and Pearson's price index, by multiplying it by the ratio of the indexes in January 1913. December 1999 and January 2000 values for the CPI-Uare extrapolated. See George F. Warren and Frank A. Pearson, Gold and Prices (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1935). Data are from their Table 1, pp. 11–14. As of September 2018, I now also include an alternative version of CAPE that is somewhat different. As documented in Bunn & Shiller (2014) and Jivraj and Shiller (2017), changes in corporate payout policy (i. e. share repurchases rather than dividends have now become a dominant approach in the United States for cash distribution to shareholders) may affect the level of the CAPE ratio through changing the growth rate of earnings per share. This subsequently may affect the average of the real earnings per share used in the CAPE ratio. A total return CAPE corrects for this bias through reinvesting dividends into the price index and appropriately scaling the earnings per share. The U.S. Home Price Indices, which Karl Case and I originally developed, which were produced 1991-2002 by our firm Case Shiller Weiss, Inc. under the direction of Allan Weiss, are now produced by CoreLogic under the direction of Linda Ladner and David Stiff. Many of these price indices, including twenty cities, low- medium- and high- tier home price indices, condominium indices, and a U.S. national index, are now published as the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices by Standard & Poor's, and are available to the public on Standard & Poor's web site. Eleven of these indices are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Information on these futures markets can be found at Historical housing market data used in my book, Irrational Exuberance [Princeton University Press 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition, 2005], showing home prices since 1890 are available for download and updated monthly: US Home Prices 1890-Present. An annual series is also available here, long term stock, bond, interest rate and consumption data since 1871 that I in collaboration with several colleagues collected to examine long term historical trends in the US market. This is Chapter 26 from my book Market Volatility, 1989, and revised and updated. Karl Case and I have collected some data sets on prices of houses, which show for a sample of homes that sold twice between 1970 and 1986 in each of four cities Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and Oakland, the first sale price, second sale price, first sale date, and second sale date. These data are somewhat outdated, and of interest only to researchers.
Early Years (The Beginning After The End Book 1) download
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